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Buy — 1.2450/60; SL — 1.2430; TP1 — 1.2530; TP2 — 1.2590
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with horizontal lines; the market is supported by Cloud again and may continue an uptrend.
Buy — 1.4130; SL — 1.4110; TP1 — 1.4180; TP2 — 1.4250.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the narrowing channel Tenkan-Kijun; the prices returned into the cloudy area.
On the daily chart NZD/USD, bulls’ inability to storm 88.6% resistance from a 4-5 wave meant their weakness. An exit of quotations out of an upward trading channel will strengthen risks of development of correction in the direction of 0.7170 and 0.7080.
On the hour chart NZD/USD, pattern “Broadening wedge” is actual. A successful storm of support at 0.7280 or pullbacks with subsequent rebounds from resistances at 0.7310, 0.7330 and 0.7350 will create opportunities to form shorts.
On the daily chart AUD/USD, an exit of the pair out of an upward trading channel and a break of support at 88.6% and 78.6% from the last wave showed a return of initiative to bears. They met an important area of 0.7885-0.7895 convergence, a continuation of a southern campaign is impossible without breaking below it.
On the hour chart, as the pair reached an intermediate target at 127.2% of the pattern “Crab”, the odds of a pullback increased. An update of the February low will allow counting on a realization of 161.8% target.
COMMODITY MARKET: TWO DIFFERENT VIEWS
12:26 05.02.2018
Nowadays, commodities market is a highly discussed issue. The US dollar and prices of commodities are highly correlated. The weakening dollar always supports the rise of the commodity market and emerging market assets. That is why the significant fall of the dollar caused disputes between experts about the future of commodities.
The first group “guided” by DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach is looking for the rise of the commodity market, expecting a weaker dollar at the same time
J. Gundlach based his opinion on a comparison of total returns of the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index with the S&P 500 over the last several decades. So he concluded that there are points where commodities outperformed stocks, it led to a sharp increase in stocks, and vice versa. Now the S&P GSCI Total Return Index-to-S&P 500 Index ratio is at its lowest point, so it means that we will see a super rise of commodities this year.
Together with Jeffrey Gundlach, analysts at Goldman Sachs are calling for rising position for the next 12 months. Bank of America Merrill Lynch has raised the a-tonne copper price forecast from $7.140 to $7.700. Bloomberg Intelligence commodity strategists compare prospects of commodity market to the bull market of 2002-08. Hedge fund managers believe in strong oil and are building long positions.
These experts saw support of their decisions in rising prices of different commodities. For example, copper, palladium, platinum, and gold have grown in the last three months. The investment of assets reached the highest level in four years. Rising prices of crude oil helped analysts to form positive forecasts as well.
However, not all of the analysts are so positive about the perspectives of the commodity market.
Wells Fargo does not expect the continuation of the dollar fall, it considers the position of the dollar as neutral. The company denies the rise of the commodities prices, anticipating over-supply and range-bound prices at the commodity market for the next 10 years.
To sum up, we can say that it is quite difficult to forecast the future of the commodities prices because none of the experts could give enough number of supportive arguments for their positions. The price of the US dollar is volatile now, so we cannot be absolutely sure how it will affect the commodity market.
IMPORTANT WEEK FOR GBP, AUD AND NZD // FOREX OUTLOOK FOR FEB. 5-9
11:03 05.02.2018
Last week the US dollar index managed to close at the positive territory for the first time since the start of December. USD rallied on Friday on upbeat US jobs data. American wages rose at the fastest pace since 2009. This fueled inflation expectations and made the market price in more rate hikes. As a result, this week the American currency has a chance to get a bit higher or at least to remain supported.
USD/JPY returned from 108.30 up to 110.00. If it manages to overcome resistance at 110.45, it may recover to 200-day MA at 111.70.
The advance of EUR/USD once again stopped at 1.2500. Support lies at 1.2350 and 1.2250. German political parties still didn’t manage to form a coalition. Yet, the region’s economy is strong and there will be few events to disturb the euro. It might be a good idea to buy the euro in crosses like EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD and EUR/CAD.
GBP/USD was rejected down from 1.4280. Apart from the strong US figures, the pair was hurt by weak data from Britain’s construction sector. At the same time, traders are afraid to act ahead of the Bank of England’s meeting. There’s a spinning top candle on the weekly chart – a sign of the market’s uncertainty. Governor Mark Carney sounded upbeat recently, and some analysts think that the BoE will raise interest rates in May. If the central bank confirms such expectations, GBP.USD will get to 1.4370/1.44. A disappointment will lead the pair down to 1.3975 and 1.3830.
Apart from the BoE meeting on Thursday, the economic calendar for this week contains the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australian on Tuesday and the New Zealand’s central bank on Wednesday.
As for NZD/USD, it strengthened since the last RBNZ meeting, although the economic data became worse. The pair looks vulnerable for a decline to 0.7240 and 0.7190.
AUD/USD: BEARS ACTED RIGHT OFF THE BAT
07:52 05.02.2018
Recommendations:
BUY 0.7975
SL 0.7920
TP1 0.8075 TP2 0.8125 TP3 0.8215
On the daily chart AUD/USD, an exit of the pair out of an upward trading channel and a break of support at 88.6% and 78.6% from the last wave showed a return of initiative to bears. They met an important area of 0.7885-0.7895 convergence, a continuation of a southern campaign is impossible without breaking below it.
On the hour chart, as the pair reached an intermediate target at 127.2% of the pattern “Crab”, the odds of a pullback increased. An update of the February low will allow counting on a realization of 161.8% target.
In this video Tutorial about the SPREAD. BID AND ASK PRICE.
The price we pay to buy the pair is called Ask. It is always slightly above the market price. The price, at which we sell the pair on Forex, is called Bid. It is always slightly below the market price.
The difference between these two prices is called spread.
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[url]https://goo.gl/a6PZnD[/url]
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WHAT IS THE CHANCE THAT THE RBA WILL CHANGE INTEREST RATES?
14:57 05.02.2018
On Tuesday, February 6 at 5:30 MT time, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce interest rates for the first time this year after the break in January. Experts do not expect any changes this time. If we look at statistics, the RBA had not changed interest rates since September 2016.
Despite the fact that the economic growth of Australia is firm and the labor market has improved, inflation data does not give reasons to the RBA to change the interest rates. In the fourth quarter CPI rose less than anticipated by 0.1 percentage points and still it is lower than RBA’s 2-3% target.
The Australian dollar is quite volatile now. On the daily chart AUD/USD, we can see that moving inside the upward trend, Aussie achieved its highest point at 0.8135 since May 2015. After that, it started falling, when received the support at 38.2 Fibonacci retracements and changed its direction again. Although the RBA is not going to raise the interest rates this time, experts expect upbeat comments. It supports the Aussie.
Traders should take into account that Aussie will be volatile on Tuesday because several important figures will be announced. Retail sales and trade balance will be published before interest rates at 2:30 MT time.
Also, on Friday, February 9 at 2:30 MT time, the RBA will give a more detailed economic outlook, delivering Monetary Policy Statement.
Making a conclusion, we can say that although the RBA had not been changing interest rates for a long time, and is not anticipated to do it tomorrow, analysts expect it this year for sure. The growth of the economy and inflation that is supported by the labor market and rising demand for commodities can lead to the increase of interest rates.
