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On the daily chart, EUR/USD is resuming the uptrend. If resistance at 1.2090-1.2115 doesn’t stop the bulls, the odds of the rally’s continuation to 1.2240-1.2280 will significantly increase. The nearest support is near 1.1995.
On H1, EUR/USD may stop at the current levels, there may be a break towards 161.8% target of the “Crab” pattern and formation of the “Widening wedge”. Traders should be cautious.
On the daily chart, EUR/GBP keeps consolidating within “Spike and ledge” pattern. We will be able to speak about the uptrend’s resumption if the pair rises above resistance at 0.9015. On the other hand, a break of support at 0.8740 will increase of correction towards 200% target of AB=CD.
On H1, EUR/GBP is making a retest in line with “Head and shoulders” pattern. We can’t exclude the possibility of a “Widening wedge”.
THE WEEKLY REPORT: AUD/USD
10:02 12.01.2018
The Australian dollar is continuing to strengthen its position at the market. On Thursday 11 January 2018 it gained the highest level in three months.
There were several reasons for such growth. First of all, the US dollar weakness during the week supported the Australian dollar. The Us dollar fell on Wednesday after the news about the willingness of China to stop purchasing US treasuries. The US dollar depreciated against all main currencies.
Another important event is the report of Australia’s retail sales for November. The rise of total sales was the highest since January 2013. The news stabilized the current state of household finances.
However, on Friday the Australian dollar started to lose positions a little bit because of the data that China released about its trade in December. According to the data, import increased much less than it was expected: 4,5% against 13,0%. This data affected demand perspectives in China – the biggest trade Australian partner. Because of this news the price of Aussie started to fall.
Nevertheless, the fall was not too big and at the time of writing of this report the price started to rise again, it gave a reason to make a positive forecast about the future growth of the Australian currency.
What can affect the rate next week is data about an unemployment rate and consumer inflation expectations on Wednesday 17 January in Australia.
AUD/USD is trying to settle above the 200-week at 0.7850. A weekly close above this line, will strengthen positions of AUD buyers. Yet, looking on the daily chart we can’t say that there’s a strong bullish momentum: moving averages are horizontal. They will offer support for the pair at 0.7770 and 0.7700. The pair still has substantial resistance located at 0.7900 and 0.8000.
There's a "Triple Bottom" pattern, which has been confirmed, so we've got a new local high. The main intraday target is the next resistance at 1.2164. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be a moment for a bearish correction towards the nearest support at 1.2129 - 1.2080.
The price has been rising since a "Triple Bottom" formed. It's likely that bulls are going to test the closest resistance at 1.2164, which could be a departure point for a downward correction.
The main trend is still bullish, so the last high is likely going to be broken soon. The main intraday target is the next resistance at 1.3612 - 1.3656. If a pullback from these levels happens little later on, bears will probably try to test the closest support at 1.3569 - 1.3549.
All the Moving Averages have been broken, so the price is rising. It seems like bulls are going to reach the next resistance at 1.3612 - 1.3656 in the coming hours. However, if a pullback from this area is on the table, we could have a correction in the direction of the nearest support at 1.3584 - 1.3549.
The 55 Moving Average has acted as support, so the last "Doji" and "Hammer" patterns led to the current upward price movement. There's no any reversal pattern, so the price is likely going to continue moving up.
There's a "Three Methods" pattern, so the price is rising. However, we could have a correction in the coming hours towards the nearest support area, which is likely going to be a departure point for another upward price movement.
The price reached the "Window", but there isn't any reversal pattern so far. So, the price is likely going to continue moving down until any bullish pattern forms.
We've got a bearish "Engulfing", which has been confirmed. In this case, the market is likely going to test the lower "Window" in the short term.
BITCOIN (BTC/USD)
19:15 14.01.2018
Bitcoin continues to consolidate slightly above the psychological level of 13,000 since buyers remain active at the Fibonacci level of 23.6% at 12,852.85. This has allowed the bears to weaken in the current movement and the Parabolic SAR seems to be supporting the price action in the short term in favor of the bulls.
During the weekend, the Russian finance minister proposed that the cryptocurrency trading is legalized once and for all, due to the wide popularity that this activity has gained in the country. It is interesting to note that companies with international remittances such as MoneyGram are implementing the XRP in their internal pilot program systems.Now bulls and bears are locked in a battle to guide the path of the BTC / USD pair in the short term, although the long-term view is still bullish. We say this because of the fact that cryptocurrency has still not moved significantly away from the 200-hour moving average, which supports the bullish price action for the time being.
What do we expect?
Our forecasts in the short term continue to put Bitcoin in a bearish trend that can be strengthened with the break of 12,852. This could allow our hypothesis raised in days ago to be fulfilled and the pair will reach the Fibonacci target of -23.6% in 8507.14. The RSI remains in negative territory, although it is entering a neutral zone
EUR/NZD
19:16 14.01.2018
EUR/NZD has been trading in a bearish tone since January 3rd session, but so far it’s consolidating above the 200 SMA, at which is currently finding sellers. The 65% Fibonacci level could act as a resistance that help to strengthen the downward path for the short-term. If that happens, the pair could be on its way to test the -23.6% Fibo zone at 1.6400.
RSI indicator is moving in the overbought territory.
The price went through an important resistance at 1.2080 - 1.2129, but bulls are likely going to test the next resistance at 1.2246. If a pullback from this level happens little later on, there'll be a moment to have a downward correction towards the nearest support at 1.2129 - 1.2080.
Bulls faced with resistance at 1.2225, so there's time for a local bearish correction. The main intraday target is the closest support at 1.2164. This level could be a departure point for another upward price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.2225 - 1.2246.
