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The US dollar index (DXY) got support at 92.80 last week and went up to consolidate between 93.20 and 94.00.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting showed that most central bank officials supported a move towards unwinding the Fed's massive balance sheet in September. The $4.5 trillion balance sheet was built up after the financial crisis to keep borrowing costs low. In addition, markets closely follow the Fed’s discussion about inflation, which has recently shown signs of weakness. Opinions within the Fed slightly differ on this point: some members think that the softness in prices is temporary, while others worry that it will take longer than expected for inflation to rise to 2% target. As a result, the odds are that the Fed will delay a rate hike until inflation picks up. This is not very inspiring for the USD.
In the upcoming days, pay attention to new home sales and crude oil inventories on Wednesday, existing home sales on Thursday and core durable goods orders on Friday. In addition, at the end of the week, world's major central bankers will gather at the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium. The Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak on the topic of financial stability at 17:00 MT time on Friday.
Note that political turmoil in Trump’s administration and the market’s risk aversion will likely reduce the impact of any positive statistics from America and keep the US currency under pressure.
Despite the recent recovery, DXY is still not far from its 13-month lows hit at the beginning of August. It looks like the greenback is correcting up within the general downtrend. A decline below 93.20 will open the way down to 93.00 and 92.50 (200-week MA). Resistance is at 94.00 ahead of 94.90 (50-day MA).
USD/JPY: DOLLAR RETURNED TO NEGATIVE AREA
13:18 18.08.2017
Technical levels: support – 109.00; resistance – 109.50.
Trade recommendations:
Sell — 109.50; SL — 109.70; TP1 — 109.00; TP2 — 108.60.
Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, the falling lines; the bears continue their offensive.
EUR/USD: OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 21-25
13:25 18.08.2017
In line with expectations, EUR/USD moved horizontally between 1.1845 and 1.1685 during the past week. European stocks were affected by terrorist attack n Barcelona.
The minutes of the ECB July meeting revealed the central bank’s concern over the euro’s strength. It also seems that officials are still uncertain how to signal changes in their policy settings as the economic outlook improves and the need for broad-based bond purchases diminishes.
The ECB President Mario Draghi will address a conference in Germany on Aug. 23, and two days later attends the US Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium. According to a Reuters report, Draghi won’t deliver a new policy message in Jackson Hole. At the same time, taking into account low inflation in the euro area and other developed economies, any comments on this point will have an impact on the market.
Other events in the region’s economic calendar include German ZEW economic sentiment index on Tuesday, euro zone’s flash manufacturing & services PMIs on Wednesday and German Ifo business climate on Friday.
The pair’s now in a correction within the overall uptrend. The trend channel will stay intact as long as the pair’s above 1.1625. It looks like the euro will visit this level. If it is breached, the pair will be vulnerable for a decline to 1.1540. A close below 200-week MA at 1.1770 won’t be a very encouraging sign. Return above 1.1790 is needed to open the way to the recent highs at 1.1845 and 1.1910, as well as the psychological level of 1.2000.
EUR/USD: "ENGULFING", "DOJI" AND "HARAMI"
13:31 18.08.2017
There are bullish patterns such an "Engulfing", a "Doji" and a "Harami", which all have been formed on the 55 Moving Average line. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance in the short term
The price has reached the Moving Averages, so it's likely to have any bearish pattern soon. In this case, we could have a local bearish correction, but bulls will probably try to deliver a new local high afterwards.
USD/JPY: BEARS GOING TO REACH LOWER "WINDOW"
13:34 18.08.2017
There isn't any reversal pattern so far, which means we should keep an eye on the lower "Window" as an intraday target. If a pullback from this level happens, we could have an upward correction towards the Moving Averages
We've got an "Inverted Hammer" and a "Tweezers" patterns, but both of them haven't been confirmed yet. So, there's an opportunity to have a local bullish correction and the following decline afterwards.
USD/JPY: OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 21-25
15:46 18.08.2017
USD/JPY had a very volatile week. The pair rebounded from 109.00 to 111.00, but then was rejected down and returned to 109.00.
Japanese GDP showed the biggest expansion in more than 2 years (+1% q/q) in the second quarter as consumer and business spending picked up. However, wage growth and inflation remain subdued as companies avoid passing more of their profits to employees. Japan will release inflation figures on Friday. Although a small acceleration in price growth from 0.4% to 0.5% is expected, this is still very far from the regulator’s 2% inflation target. As a result, risk sentiment will remain the primary driver of the pair.
The market’s risk aversion is feeding demand for the safe-haven yen. Concerns over US President Donald Trump's ability to push through the pro-growth measures led to significant declines on Wall Street. Terrorist attack in Barcelona also affected the markets. North Korea can also be a source of worries.
USD/JPY remains in short- and longer-term downtrend. A decline below 109.00 will open the way down to 108.80 (bottom of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud/August, June lows). In turn, decline below that point will bring the pair down to 108.10 (April low). A break below the latter will be a signal of the bigger top at Forex market. Resistance lies at 109.50, 110.50 and 111.00.
GBP/USD: OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 21-25
16:23 18.08.2017
Reports released this week in the UK showed a mixed picture. Consumer price inflation in Britain unexpectedly held steady in July at an annual rate of 2.6%, despite the fact that analysts were looking forward to a higher number. This news diminishes the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates – not a positive factor for the pound. Retail sales growth exceeded forecasts on the monthly basis, although advance of the indicator in 3 months through July was the weakest in almost 4 years.
In the coming days, Britain will release the second estimate of its GDP growth in the second quarter. According to the initial data, the UK economy expanded by only 0.3% – that’s weak in comparison with last year’s figures.
Uncertainty about Brexit and global risk concerns are having a negative impact on the British currency.
GBP/USD broke below the 50-day MA at 1.2930 at the start of the week and is now consolidating above the 100-day MA at 1.2870. The pair’s currently trading at support line, which connects March and June lows. Decline below the recent lows and 61.8% retracement of June-August rally will open the way down towards the next Fibo level at 1.2735 and 200-day MA at 1.2640. Resistance levels are at 1.2930 and 1.3000.
On the daily chart, bulls are trying to return the pair inside the uptrend channel at the phase of the “Spike and reversal with acceleration”. If they succeed. The odds of the uptrend’s resumption will increase. On the other hand, failure will allow bears to continue correction.
On H1, EUR/USD finished forming the “widening wedge”. Return of the quotes to 23.6% of the wave 4-5 will be a reason for short positions. On the other hand, growth to $1.1825 will allow opening longs.
EUR/USD: CONSOLIDATION IN CLOUDY AREA
10:32 21.08.2017
Technical levels: support – 1.1640, 1.1730; resistance – 1.1770, 1.1820.
Trade recommendations:
Sell — 1.1720; SL — 1.1740; TP1 — 1.1680; TP2 – 1.1640.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the Cloud and may test the support of Senkou Span B.
Technical levels: support – 0.7890; resistance – 0.7935.
Trade recommendations:
Buy — 0.7890; SL — 0.7870; TP1 — 0.7935; TP3 — 0.7980.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are testing the resistance of Senkou Span B.
