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I mentioned earlier support area at 130.10/20 and after touching exactly bottom range of that support pair managed to show some strength. Yen is currently getting a bit weaker against major rivals and we should not observe major moves towards the close. Should some bullish momentum appear, resistance lays at 130.56 i 130.95.
If the resistance around 1.5815 really holds against all bullish attempts then we may find ourselves in some nice bearish scenario going down towards support at 1.5715. If on the other hand resistance will be broken then retest of 1.5891 – 1.5915 is possible during next week.
After painful selling for few days now it seems like bears gave up just for now. Some resistance though should be noted at around 0.9165/75 area (today's heights) with some afternoon support at 0.9135 and lower at 0.9120 and 0.9078. If this is only corrective move in bigger descending trend, then soon we will see more downside move towards 0.9078. Should bulls continue slow recovery we should watch resistance at 0.9180 (200_SMA) and 0.9200 - resistance channel line.
The price pullback we observe on GOLD from some time made its way towards some important support at bottom channel line around 1628.70 USD per ounce. Last time we bounced up from this line was also THURSDAY so suit yourself but I personally do not think it’s coincidence .
The medium term uptrend channel support line was broken yesterday and confirmation of that breakdown we had today in the morning when pair was testing it as a resistance (GREY ELLIPSIS AREA) For now support level is placed at yesterday’s low around 82.32 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 7th-15th March wave that stopped bears yesterday quite well) and lower at 81.96 which is 61.8% Fibo… If that won’t stop bears we may see ourselves in quite new environment with a lot of potential selling options. there is some minor support around 81.70 as well but I personally doubt if it would stop sellers after breaking through 81.96. Resistance is placed around 83.00 and 83.18 levels.
Since yesterday when I wrote about strong channel support line [url]http://moneyinvestfx.wordpress.com/2012/03/22/gold-technical-update/[/url] we see nothing else but gains. Seems like market picked same defense line.
I decided to write separate post about this pair because there was again a lot of selling interest that may, just MAY be finishing soon. to see the chart enter http://moneyinvestfx.wordpress.com/2012/03/25/usdjpy-special-report-technical-analysis/ I could not post it here as it exceeded the size limit...
I will explain each and every line I placed on the chart. I will focus on the main ones and later on I move to the other combinations.
1. MAIN TREND CHANNEL BLUE LINES
We have seen this trend formation for about 6 weeks already and only on Friday support line was broken. As for such long trend it implies a lot of bearish momentum – especially because after breaking the support we managed to come back and retest it as a resistance. Such event also provides more bearish bias. Support was broken at 82.75 area and retest took place at 82.90 level. From there pair moved strong to the downside.
2. INNER TREND RED SUPPORT LINE
This line you can see in the middle of the main trend acted as support for 3 times. After it was broken it served as quite good resistance line for further upwards moves.
3. INNER TREND BRONZE SUPPORT LINE
Also inside the trend but stronger – bronze support line acted well for buyers for 5 times and broke of this inner support line let bears act more decisively. All this led to 83.75 test and it later breakdown.
4. PURPLE PARALLEL CHANNEL TREND LINES
On the top of the chart you can see those parallel lines which tops and bottom I marked with purple ellipsis. It served well as resistance (after the channel was broken 82.96 level.
5. LIGHT GREEN DESCENDING CHANNEL LINES
Formed at the end of the week with the test of 82.96 resistance later on served as good support levels during steep price falls towards 81.96. Break of this channel may lead towards 82.96 level again.
6. FIBONACCI RETRACEMENTS
I also put Fibo levels on the wave from 7th to 15th March. Last week we already tested two very important support levels at 50% and 61,8% of that wave. In both cases the bounce-back lasted as much as 60 pips and after that selling mode renewed. We indeed have some support below 81.96 at around 81.70 area but breakdown of this level does not seem as good situation for buyers. On the other hand failed test of 81.96 – 61,8% Fibo – seems like a positive sign for buyers for the upcoming week.
ANALISE DIARIA EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, GBPJPY, AUDUSD, OURO, PRATA entre outros
